LA Probability Forum

USC, Kaprelian (KAP) 414

Consider a birth-death process started from one individual in which each individual gives birth at rate $\lambda$ and dies at rate $\mu$, so that the population size grows at rate $r = \lambda - \mu$. Lambert (2018) and Harris, Johnston, and Roberts (2020) came up with methods for constructing the exact genealogy of a sample of size $n$ taken from this population at time $T$. We use the construction of Lambert (2018), which is based on the coalescent point process, to obtain asymptotic results for the site frequency spectrum associated with this sample. We also explain how to apply these results to obtain a confidence interval for the growth rate of an exponentially growing tumor. This is joint work with Kit Curtius, Brian Johnson, and Yubo Shuai.