ASTRONOMY COLLOQUIUM

The first AGN was identified as a variable source over ninety five years ago and their extragalactic nature was determined over sixty years ago. Today we have catalogs of millions of them and the next generation of sky surveys will detect tens of millions but their inherent variability across all accessible wavelengths and timescales remains a profound puzzle.
We have no strong indication what the underlying physical processes are, we cannot infer basic physical values from time series, and we cannot forecast future activity with any great degree of accuracy. Attempts over the past decade to address this through increasingly complex statistical and machine learning models have not met with stunning success and our best simulations still lack sufficient resolution and complexity. However, a recent shift of focus to studying the broader environment of a supermassive black hole and on interactions between its different elements is proving more fruitful. In this talk, I will explore the latest observational evidence into AGN variability, particularly focusing on extreme events and what insights they offering us into accretion processes and the surrounding circumnuclear environment. I will also discuss the potential for upcoming observational facilities and advanced techniques to help reveal whether AGN variability is indeed a treasure trove of astrophysical discovery or merely a mesmerizing mirage.