Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Abstract: How much poorer is the world today, compared to a world without climate change? A recent surge of empirical research has studied how economic growth is impacted by variation in weather and climate, offering a potential answer. Unfortunately, these studies use wildly different assumptions, resulting in very different magnitudes of impacts. We have developed a meta-analysis of these divergent results, applying a machine learning approach that accounts for different modeling decisions. We then combine this with other major dynamics by which climate change impacts and undermines economic outcomes: persistence of damages, sea-level rise, trade spill-overs, and productive capacity. Through this project, my talk will touch on several of the modeling approaches shaping our understanding of climate impacts, and how climate change undermines economies, exacerbates inequality, and provides input into the necessary scale of policy responses.